Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 1.431073 1.491155 1.553376 1.622822 1.698406 1.778454 1.869998
2026-01-11 1.354574 1.434325 1.519537 1.617933 1.729170 1.851942 1.998996
2026-01-18 1.302133 1.395648 1.497983 1.619361 1.760871 1.922567 2.124237
2026-01-25 1.241092 1.342063 1.454522 1.590625 1.753118 1.943967 2.190019
2026-02-01 1.200413 1.308520 1.430879 1.581761 1.765999 1.988240 2.284408
2026-02-08 1.163905 1.277436 1.407723 1.571031 1.774479 2.025923 2.371563
2026-02-15 1.130730 1.248406 1.385087 1.558908 1.779388 2.058022 2.452386
2026-02-22 1.109177 1.231942 1.376289 1.562605 1.803415 2.115039 2.570393
2026-03-01 1.073618 1.197136 1.343545 1.534407 1.784248 2.112882 2.604015
2026-03-08 1.045347 1.170127 1.319219 1.515512 1.775783 2.123902 2.656514
2026-03-15 1.022599 1.149051 1.301343 1.503849 1.775873 2.146013 2.726443
2026-03-22 1.013645 1.144557 1.303831 1.518359 1.811483 2.219567 2.881411
2026-03-29 1.006998 1.143085 1.310501 1.539215 1.857751 2.312985 3.081245
2026-04-05 0.990238 1.128272 1.299427 1.535642 1.869231 2.355341 3.201032
2026-04-12 0.976833 1.117241 1.292747 1.537520 1.888247 2.409983 3.348222
2026-04-19 0.952841 1.092028 1.266761 1.511847 1.865823 2.398449 3.374423
2026-04-26 0.937343 1.077319 1.254107 1.504062 1.869144 2.427544 3.479151
2026-05-03 0.921941 1.062326 1.240600 1.494488 1.869151 2.450979 3.575577
2026-05-10 0.906774 1.047264 1.226554 1.483580 1.866480 2.469569 3.664435
2026-05-17 0.897891 1.040130 1.222829 1.487030 1.885596 2.525436 3.837131
2026-05-24 0.878443 1.018731 1.199355 1.461401 1.858580 2.500807 3.834856
2026-05-31 0.862878 1.002163 1.182068 1.444205 1.844048 2.496935 3.877897
2026-06-07 0.850339 0.989350 1.169589 1.433584 1.839361 2.509891 3.960405